In my first article, I summarized Trump’s relations with Turkey during his first term, emphasizing the ups and downs. This article examines Turkey-US relations under key themes during Trump’s second term, focusing on predictions based on current political figures rather than evaluating their qualifications.
The next five years are likely to be shaped by significant global challenges, as seen in recent years with events like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Israel’s invasion of Gaza. Unforeseen developments, such as health issues impacting either leader, could further complicate these dynamics.
Marco Rubio as Secretary of State
On November 13, Trump announced Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, making him the first Latino and the second minority to hold the position after Colin Powell. Rubio, once a vocal critic of Trump during the 2016 primaries, has become one of his strongest supporters. Known for his hawkish stances on China and Venezuela, Rubio’s position on the Middle East is equally assertive. He has consistently opposed Erdoğan, supporting groups like the YPG in Northern Syria and advocating for moving US military bases from Turkey to Greece or Cyprus. Rubio has also criticized Erdoğan’s human rights record, aligning with groups like the Gülen Movement on this issue. Erdoğan will face a difficult partner in Rubio, who brings a deeply critical perspective to US-Turkey relations.
Turkey’s Role in Syria
With the Assad regime overthrown by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group listed as a terrorist organization by both the US and Turkey, Erdoğan has emerged victorious after years of supporting Syrian militants. How Erdoğan leverages this political victory with Trump’s administration will depend on Trump’s approach to Syria. While Erdoğan supports a US withdrawal from Syria, as Trump has promised, Rubio and the Pentagon are unlikely to approve such a move, citing the importance of Kurdish forces in combating ISIS. Erdoğan has reportedly proposed that Turkey’s military could replace Kurdish forces in fighting ISIS, a promise that may influence Trump’s decisions.
Bilateral Communication
Erdoğan and Trump maintained frequent contact during Trump’s first term, and Erdoğan is expected to leverage this direct line of communication again. Personal rapport between the two leaders could play a pivotal role in shaping bilateral relations, even as institutional challenges persist.
The Hamas Question
Erdoğan’s vocal support for Hamas has consistently drawn criticism from the US media and Congress. With a strong evangelical lobby pressuring the Trump administration to adopt a harder stance on Hamas, tensions are likely to escalate. Trump’s association with influential evangelicals, such as Mike Huckabee, suggests he will confront Erdoğan over his support for Hamas. Erdoğan, facing economic struggles and growing international scrutiny, may tread cautiously in his rhetoric and actions regarding Hamas, as this issue could significantly strain relations.
F-35 Program and Military Cooperation
One unresolved issue is Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 fighter jet program. The US has made Turkey’s return contingent on selling its Russian S-400 air defense systems or allowing them to be examined at Incirlik Air Base—conditions Erdoğan is unlikely to accept. However, Erdoğan may seek to negotiate updates for Turkey’s F-16 fighter jets through direct communication with Trump, bypassing institutional obstacles.
Conclusion
Turkey-US relations under Trump’s second term are entering a complex phase. The dynamics will depend heavily on Erdoğan’s ability to navigate personal relations with Trump while addressing institutional resistance from figures like Rubio and agencies like the Pentagon. The interplay between Erdoğan’s pragmatism and Trump’s increasingly assertive leadership will define the future of this delicate relationship. How Erdoğan balances his agenda on the tightrope of US-Turkey relations will be a key factor in shaping this new chapter.
Enlightening. Bold. Informative.